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India Left Behind?

India recently set forth its National Action Plan on Climate Change (summary and link to whole plan here). It orders the various ministries to submit detailed implementation plans in each of eight mission areas by the end of this year. Although the plan contemplates no specific limits on Indian carbon emissions, and that development objectives have priority over limiting global warming, it pledges that India's per-capita greenhouse gas emissions "will at no point exceed that of developed countries even as we pursue our development objectives." Since India's per-capita GHG emissions are about 2 tonnes CO₂equivalent, while the average of the developing world is about 16 tonnes, that seems like a safe bet.

But what if the United States miraculously follows Al Gore's "Generational Challenge to Repower America", and becomes largely carbon-neutral in energy within ten years? That would give Americans per-capita GHG emissions of about 3 tonnes CO₂e (more than 85% of U.S. GHG emissions come from energy use). Even if other developed countries didn't do the same, the average of their per-capita emissions would be around 6-7 tonnes. Could India beat that at its current rate of increase in coal-based power?

And consider that such a crash program would make the United States the leader in a whole range of renewable-energy and energy-efficiency technologies, from solar and wind to electric vehicles and public transport. Plus redirecting spending from importing oil to domestic research and manufacturing would have a profound effect on the economy. Paychecks for Americans instead of for Canadians and Saudis.

When do you think India's per-capita emissions will exceed America's?

Green energy news roundup

Quite a lot of green energy in the news this past week! First Al Gore stumps for an end to US use of fossil fuels. I appreciate the way he couched his rhetoric to make this shared national source of pride like the Apollo program. What he does not talk about, but I'm sure he's working on behind the scenes, is the specific means to reach this goal. I've been approaching things from a personal angle of what I can do to reduce my individual footprint, but how do we legislate a national effort? I agree with Mr. Gore that a full-on national effort is required - so what do we do to motivate people to get on the bandwagon and recognize this as the next big shared step in reaching our human potential?

Then almost in the same day Texas approves the updating of their energy infrastructure to increase access to wind power. As far as I can tell this doesn't really do anything to increase the production of wind energy in Texas, it just puts in place the power lines necessary to transmit power from proposed wind farms on the pan handle to the rest of the state, but it does seem to indicate that even deep in oil country Texans recognize that wind power is a growth industry and a massive source of income.

Personal speculation re: fuel prices and fuel efficiancy

Here is an excerpt from my personal blog that fits well with the HaraBara mindset:

Since I started a fuel consumption log on June 1 I have driven 699 miles. Let's round up and say that averages to 26 miles per day. I have put 27.788 gallons in the tank to cover those miles, so that's about 25.15 miles to the gallon. I have spent $112.32 on that gas, for an average of $4.042/gal.

I heard an alarmist report on the radio that some group or other had projected that gas will jump to over $7/gal in the next two years. (See this piece on ABC News' site) So at that price, how attractive is a hybrid car.. that is, how quickly would a massive purchase like that pay for itself in gas savings? I don't do a lot of highway driving, it's mostly stop-and-go short trips, so let's say I eek 40 MPG out of a high-end new car. That would save me, at today's gas prices, about $41.68 per month. Say I pay the sticker price of $21,000 for such a car. It would take me 42 years to pay off that tab at $41.68 per month.. of course not counting tax and interest.

Now what about at $7/gal? At that price I'm spending $194.51/month in my current car, and $122.32/month in this theoretical 40 MPG car. A savings of $72.18/month. Only 24 years to pay off the car in gas savings alone. Still not making it.

Let's assume that my theoretical car will last for 10 years. I need $175 savings per month to make it worth my while. Some calculating later I estimate that it will only be worth my while (in only gas money savings) to buy this car and pay it off over ten years (somehow without interest) if gas goes up to $10.34/gal. Somehow even the most dire predictions I can find aren't projecting prices like that in the near future. And yet, I can't help feeling that such prices are not too far off. Never mind the slight reduction in my carbon footprint if I'm burning 10.3 fewer gallons of gas per month in a newer, more efficient and hopefully less-polluting engine. Besides: hybrid cars are just sexy. Like iPods.

So. Resolved: the next spare $21000 I have laying around will go to a high efficiency hybrid car.

IT Greening, But It Doesn't Add Up

"In our experience the sectors that are ahead in eco initiatives are larger organisations that are exposed to customer pressure. As the pressure from customers and government to reduce environmental impact increases, the ripple effect will spread to all suppliers, no matter the size," — Duncan Bennet, Vice President and Managing Director, Sun Microsystems ANZ.

This has been HaraBara's contention from its beginning, and is the basic reason for our existence.

Mr. Bennet's statement is based on a survey of Australian and New Zealand IT managers carried out by Sun Microsystems. I found these results the most interesting:

Measurement of carbon emissions

• 22% have practices in place to enable the measurement of carbon emissions
• 36% have no practices in place but are interested in evaluating them
• 33% have no plans to measure carbon emissions

Greening the IT department

• 38% have dedicated green IT plans in place
• 23% plan to deploy eco responsible technology in the next 12 months
• 21% are evaluating putting green IT plans in place
• 15% have no plans at all

So 38% have green IT plans, but only 22% can measure carbon emissions? What, then, does "green IT plan" mean?

The following findings were unsurprising, since all studies of "going green" show that businesses are focused on the bottom line:

Drivers for uptake of green technology (multiple answers allowed, top 4 below):

• Reduced power consumption - 78%
• Lower costs - 73%
• Lower carbon emissions and environmental impact (eg recycling) - 61%
• Improved systems performance and utilisation - 50%

Indian Youth Climate Network

Indian Youth Unite to Fight Climate Change

The Indian Youth Climate Network aims to be a broad and diverse coalition for youth organizations operating in India to take action and demand stronger and more effective government policy on climate change.

As youth from India, we will make our presence felt. Climate change is the biggest challenge any generation has had to face in the history of the planet. We have a right, along with all species, to a sustainable future and a liveable planet. This right carries on to our children and grandchildren.

Our nation is at the crossroads, while we must demand climate equity at an international level, we cannot go down the pathway of the industrialized nations who have created this climate calamity.

Check them out http://www.iycn.in/.

Costs of Future Carbon Reductions Estimated by IEA

We Can Cut CO₂ Emissions In Half, But It Won't Be Cheap

A new report from the International Energy Agency provides some estimates of the cost of reducing global CO₂ emissions 50% by 2050. Their scenarios depend on implementing new technologies such as carbon capture and storage, and involve cost of tens of trillions of dollars. Information about the report is here. The executive summary is here(pdf).

Maintaining Our Current Course Might Cost Just As Much

The IEA's "business as usual" scenario sees oil demand increasing 70%, requiring increased production equal to five times Saudi Arabia's current output. Obviously this would require huge investment, plus imposing much higher oil prices on future consumers. And under this scenario CO₂ emissions would rise 130%. Who knows how much would have to be spent on climate change mitigation projects?

So we are going to invest many trillions either way. It is a question of what sort of planet we will have in the end.

(Environmental Leader article)