Personal speculation re: fuel prices and fuel efficiancy

Here is an excerpt from my personal blog that fits well with the HaraBara mindset:

Since I started a fuel consumption log on June 1 I have driven 699 miles. Let's round up and say that averages to 26 miles per day. I have put 27.788 gallons in the tank to cover those miles, so that's about 25.15 miles to the gallon. I have spent $112.32 on that gas, for an average of $4.042/gal.

I heard an alarmist report on the radio that some group or other had projected that gas will jump to over $7/gal in the next two years. (See this piece on ABC News' site) So at that price, how attractive is a hybrid car.. that is, how quickly would a massive purchase like that pay for itself in gas savings? I don't do a lot of highway driving, it's mostly stop-and-go short trips, so let's say I eek 40 MPG out of a high-end new car. That would save me, at today's gas prices, about $41.68 per month. Say I pay the sticker price of $21,000 for such a car. It would take me 42 years to pay off that tab at $41.68 per month.. of course not counting tax and interest.

Now what about at $7/gal? At that price I'm spending $194.51/month in my current car, and $122.32/month in this theoretical 40 MPG car. A savings of $72.18/month. Only 24 years to pay off the car in gas savings alone. Still not making it.

Let's assume that my theoretical car will last for 10 years. I need $175 savings per month to make it worth my while. Some calculating later I estimate that it will only be worth my while (in only gas money savings) to buy this car and pay it off over ten years (somehow without interest) if gas goes up to $10.34/gal. Somehow even the most dire predictions I can find aren't projecting prices like that in the near future. And yet, I can't help feeling that such prices are not too far off. Never mind the slight reduction in my carbon footprint if I'm burning 10.3 fewer gallons of gas per month in a newer, more efficient and hopefully less-polluting engine. Besides: hybrid cars are just sexy. Like iPods.

So. Resolved: the next spare $21000 I have laying around will go to a high efficiency hybrid car.