Personal speculation re: fuel prices and fuel efficiancy

Here is an excerpt from my personal blog that fits well with the HaraBara mindset:

Since I started a fuel consumption log on June 1 I have driven 699 miles. Let's round up and say that averages to 26 miles per day. I have put 27.788 gallons in the tank to cover those miles, so that's about 25.15 miles to the gallon. I have spent $112.32 on that gas, for an average of $4.042/gal.

I heard an alarmist report on the radio that some group or other had projected that gas will jump to over $7/gal in the next two years. (See this piece on ABC News' site) So at that price, how attractive is a hybrid car.. that is, how quickly would a massive purchase like that pay for itself in gas savings? I don't do a lot of highway driving, it's mostly stop-and-go short trips, so let's say I eek 40 MPG out of a high-end new car. That would save me, at today's gas prices, about $41.68 per month. Say I pay the sticker price of $21,000 for such a car. It would take me 42 years to pay off that tab at $41.68 per month.. of course not counting tax and interest.

Now what about at $7/gal? At that price I'm spending $194.51/month in my current car, and $122.32/month in this theoretical 40 MPG car. A savings of $72.18/month. Only 24 years to pay off the car in gas savings alone. Still not making it.

Let's assume that my theoretical car will last for 10 years. I need $175 savings per month to make it worth my while. Some calculating later I estimate that it will only be worth my while (in only gas money savings) to buy this car and pay it off over ten years (somehow without interest) if gas goes up to $10.34/gal. Somehow even the most dire predictions I can find aren't projecting prices like that in the near future. And yet, I can't help feeling that such prices are not too far off. Never mind the slight reduction in my carbon footprint if I'm burning 10.3 fewer gallons of gas per month in a newer, more efficient and hopefully less-polluting engine. Besides: hybrid cars are just sexy. Like iPods.

So. Resolved: the next spare $21000 I have laying around will go to a high efficiency hybrid car.

People Like Green Cars Because They Make a Statement

The smart ForTwo and the Prius

Both the Daimler AG smart ForTwo and the Toyota Prius are selling like hotcakes. The ForTwo has been on sale in the U.S. for about five months, has sold about 9,000 units, and has a one-year waiting list. People really like a car that says "I'm green" loud and clear.

The ForTwo (picture from U.S. EPA) gets around 38 miles per gallon, and only carries two people. The Prius carries four, gets around 46 mpg, and costs about $10,000 more. The ForTwo gets the best fuel efficiency of any non-hybrid sold in the U.S. But the Toyota Corolla gets almost as good mileage (about 38 mpg actual experience), carries four, and only costs $4,000 or $5,000 more than the ForTwo. And you can actually get one. But it just looks like any other car.

A People's Car?

People who want to be different will love the ForTwo. Reviews are generally good, though some reviewers have reservations (Consumer Reports blog (not review); New York Times; Wired.) But all agree the car is cute. Maybe it will catch on like the Volkswagen Beetle did. Green, cute, a statement. (And the ForTwo, while about the same width as the VW Bug, is more than four feet shorter. It's more than three feet shorter than the BMW MINI.) This is a small car like the Beetle was a small car, only more so.

Daimler is working on a hybrid electric version of the ForTwo. And in London they have been testing all-electric ones.


Smart USA site

Better World Takes On AAA

AAA Loves Cars and Highways--Isn't There an Alternative?

Haven't you heard of the Better World Club? It provides the same types of services as the American Automobile Association, such as roadside assistance, insurance, maps, eco-travel services, discounts on hybrid car rentals, bicycle roadside assistance . . . . Wait a minute! AAA doesn't provide bicycle roadside assistance--it's the Automobile Association.

I admit I haven't actually tried it yet. (I'd be interested to hear from anyone who has.) But it sounds like they have the HaraBara spirit. At HaraBara we believe that if businesses green themselves and look for green suppliers, they will save money and provide added value to green customers. We concentrate on business-to-business connections, but BWC does have a fleet program for businesses.

Just because you help people who have cars doesn't mean you have to resist all non-car forms of transportation.

I'll try to provide more detail in a future post or article in HaraBara's News & Views section.

GM In Retreat

General Motors Faces Facts: People Aren't Buying Enough Guzzlers

Rick Wagoner, chairman and chief executive of GM, admitted today that the era of gas guzzlers is ending. "These higher gasoline prices are changing consumer behavior and rapidly," he said . "We don't think this is a temporary spike or shift. We think it is permanent." That's too bad for GM, and a lot of its employees.

In response to the public's change of taste, GM will close four North American plants that make trucks and SUVs and employ abut 10,000 workers. It will increase production of some of its more fuel-efficient models by adding third shifts at two plants that build the Chevy Malibu, Pontiac G6, Chevy Cobalt and Pontiac G5. And it is talking up the Volt, currently in development with a market roll-out scheduled for 2010 (suggested price $30,000?).

Wagoner also said GM is considering selling its Hummer unit.

The Cost of Stubbornness

General Motors has lost more than $54 billion since 2005, according to AFP, and laid off tens of thousands of employees. Although U.S. car companies have held on as long as possible selling profitable big SUVs and light trucks, now they are being hit from two directions. Japanese and German makers are selling competitive big SUVs and pickups, and Americans are buying fewer of them at the same time.

Fuel Efficient

The Chevy Malibu and Cobalt, the cars GM hopes to sell more of because of their fuel efficiency, get 20 to 25 miles per gallon (EPA combined) and emit 6.7 to 7.6 tonnes of CO₂ annually with typical driving. That's about the same as a Toyota Camry. The Malibu hybrid gets 27 m/g, while the Camry hybrid gets 34, and emits more than a tonne less CO₂ per year.

More in this AFP item and this from CNN.

F1 to Allow "Hybrids"

Hybrids, But Not For Efficiency

Recent news articles (like this one) have touted the announcement that some Formula One teams are working on hybrid gasoline/electric cars for the 2009 season. Indeed this is true. The rulebook has been modified to allow electric motors to be added to F1 cars. Some have hailed this as "fuel-saving" technology for these extreme vehicles.

Everybody Wants to Be Green

The key is that hybrid technology will not be used to increase fuel efficiency but to boost power temporarily, for example for passing. The additional weight of motors and batteries can be absorbed because F1 cars typically weigh less than the rule minimum, and carry ballast meet the required weight. This change may make F1 more interesting. In effect it gives cars a "turbo" or "nitro" button for bursts of speed, but not higher horsepower for the whole race. This will introduce a new element of race tactics. But it is unlikely to create technological breakthroughs that will benefit the rest of us. The real challenge for hybrid vehicles is to reduce battery weight and cost, and increase battery lifetimes. This is not likely to be an issue in a sport where cars get three miles to the gallon and go through dozens of tires in every race.

Will NASCAR Be Next?

We can only hope. Maybe then hybrids would gain broader appeal and get Detroit's attention.