Personal speculation re: fuel prices and fuel efficiancy

Here is an excerpt from my personal blog that fits well with the HaraBara mindset:

Since I started a fuel consumption log on June 1 I have driven 699 miles. Let's round up and say that averages to 26 miles per day. I have put 27.788 gallons in the tank to cover those miles, so that's about 25.15 miles to the gallon. I have spent $112.32 on that gas, for an average of $4.042/gal.

I heard an alarmist report on the radio that some group or other had projected that gas will jump to over $7/gal in the next two years. (See this piece on ABC News' site) So at that price, how attractive is a hybrid car.. that is, how quickly would a massive purchase like that pay for itself in gas savings? I don't do a lot of highway driving, it's mostly stop-and-go short trips, so let's say I eek 40 MPG out of a high-end new car. That would save me, at today's gas prices, about $41.68 per month. Say I pay the sticker price of $21,000 for such a car. It would take me 42 years to pay off that tab at $41.68 per month.. of course not counting tax and interest.

Now what about at $7/gal? At that price I'm spending $194.51/month in my current car, and $122.32/month in this theoretical 40 MPG car. A savings of $72.18/month. Only 24 years to pay off the car in gas savings alone. Still not making it.

Let's assume that my theoretical car will last for 10 years. I need $175 savings per month to make it worth my while. Some calculating later I estimate that it will only be worth my while (in only gas money savings) to buy this car and pay it off over ten years (somehow without interest) if gas goes up to $10.34/gal. Somehow even the most dire predictions I can find aren't projecting prices like that in the near future. And yet, I can't help feeling that such prices are not too far off. Never mind the slight reduction in my carbon footprint if I'm burning 10.3 fewer gallons of gas per month in a newer, more efficient and hopefully less-polluting engine. Besides: hybrid cars are just sexy. Like iPods.

So. Resolved: the next spare $21000 I have laying around will go to a high efficiency hybrid car.

People Like Green Cars Because They Make a Statement

The smart ForTwo and the Prius

Both the Daimler AG smart ForTwo and the Toyota Prius are selling like hotcakes. The ForTwo has been on sale in the U.S. for about five months, has sold about 9,000 units, and has a one-year waiting list. People really like a car that says "I'm green" loud and clear.

The ForTwo (picture from U.S. EPA) gets around 38 miles per gallon, and only carries two people. The Prius carries four, gets around 46 mpg, and costs about $10,000 more. The ForTwo gets the best fuel efficiency of any non-hybrid sold in the U.S. But the Toyota Corolla gets almost as good mileage (about 38 mpg actual experience), carries four, and only costs $4,000 or $5,000 more than the ForTwo. And you can actually get one. But it just looks like any other car.

A People's Car?

People who want to be different will love the ForTwo. Reviews are generally good, though some reviewers have reservations (Consumer Reports blog (not review); New York Times; Wired.) But all agree the car is cute. Maybe it will catch on like the Volkswagen Beetle did. Green, cute, a statement. (And the ForTwo, while about the same width as the VW Bug, is more than four feet shorter. It's more than three feet shorter than the BMW MINI.) This is a small car like the Beetle was a small car, only more so.

Daimler is working on a hybrid electric version of the ForTwo. And in London they have been testing all-electric ones.


Smart USA site

What Is Your Ecological Footprint?

We Are Using More Earths Than There Are?

"Humanity's Ecological Footprint is over 23% larger than what the planet can regenerate. In other words, it now takes more than one year and two months for the Earth to regenerate what we use in a single year. We maintain this overshoot by liquidating the planet's ecological resources."

I recently got to hear Mathis Wackernagel, Executive Director of Global Footprint Network, speak at a swissnex event. Global Footprint Network is in the business of encouraging ecological sanity by getting people to think about their "Ecological Footprint". The Ecological Footprint is a resource management tool that measures how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb its wastes under prevailing technology.

Mathis' message, entertainingly delivered, was:

Keeping track of the compound effect of humanity's consumption of natural resources and generation of waste is one key to achieving sustainability.

As long as our governments and business leaders do not know how much of nature's capacity we use or how resource use compares to existing stocks, overshoot may go undetected - increasing the ecological deficit and reducing nature's capacity to meet society's needs.

Check Your Footprint

You can use the tools on this page to calculate your own Ecological Footprint. How much of the Earth's resources, land, air and water do you require to support your lifestyle? What if everybody lived that way?